Tonight’s read · July 4, 2026
Storms in spots for Knoxville
Festival on the 4th has a compromised window.
Best seat
Tennessee Smokies Independence Fireworks — Knoxville
Marginal — best of 4
Watch
Altar Fellowship 4th of July Celebration — Johnson City
2 marginal (50%) · 2 washout (50%)
Confidence
Medium
6 days out · firms daily
Score breakdownavg 29 / 100
Marginal2 · 50%
Washout2 · 50%
Updated Jul 5, 5:40 AM UTC7-day outlook — verdicts firm daily through the 4th
Top picks tonightMarginal · 52 pts leads the market
1
Tennessee Smokies Independence Fireworks
Knoxville, TN · 9:41 PM est.
2
Festival on the 4th
Knoxville, TN · 9:41 PM est.
3
Dollywood Sweet Summer Nights
Pigeon Forge, TN · 9:39 PM est.
0 ideal · 4 shows scored
If you're watching in Knoxville tonight, Festival on the 4th looks like a compromised view — light air — smoke may linger · some scrub risk. Dollywood Sweet Summer Nights in Pigeon Forge is another strong bet. The one to watch is Johnson City — storm risk — may be scrubbed · light air — smoke may linger — so keep a backup if you're headed that way.
Show locations4 pinned · click marker to filter table
Every show in your market — 4
✕ Clear filter
★ Marquee pinned first — the iconic show; the rest ranked best sky → worst. Click any row to expand conditions.
| Show | Town | Launch | Sky at launch | Wind | Verdict |
|---|
| ★Festival on the 4thMARQUEE | Knoxville, TN | 9:41 PM est. | Mostly clear | NNW 4 mph | Marginal51 |
| Tennessee Smokies Independence Fireworks | Knoxville, TN | 9:41 PM est. | Mostly clear | NNW 4 mph | Marginal52 |
| Dollywood Sweet Summer Nights | Pigeon Forge, TN | 9:39 PM est. | Mostly clear | SW 3 mph | Washout10 |
| Altar Fellowship 4th of July Celebration | Johnson City, TN | 9:36 PM est. | Mostly clear | WSW 10 mph | Washout4 |
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Fireworks Forecast Desk