The Most At-Risk Fireworks Shows

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Fireworks Index · July 4, 2026

Where the weather is making the toughest case against a clean show — worth a backup plan.

Shows ranked

25 of 1,667

#1 Fireworks Index

0 — Rough

Forecast source

Tomorrow.io Weather API

1,667

shows in the full corpus

shows ranked on this board

#1 Fireworks Index

#10 score on this board

What this ranks

How these shows are chosen

Lowest Fireworks Index first. Conditions, not predictions of cancellation — the call always belongs to the show's crew.

Fireworks Index · The Most At-Risk Fireworks Shows

Rankings

Manchester-by-the-Sea Fireworks

Barge off Singing Beach, MA · Fireworks Index 0 (Rough) · Show confidence: 84

Rank	Show / Venue	Show confidence	Index	Band
1	Manchester-by-the-Sea Fireworks Barge off Singing Beach, MA	84	0	Rough
2	Gloucester Fireworks Stage Fort Park, 1 Hough Ave., MA	86	0	Rough
3	Hampton Beach Fireworks Hampton Beach State Park, NH	87	0	Rough
4	Amesbury Fireworks Woodsom Farm, 223 Lions Mouth Road, MA	89	0	Rough
5	Lynn Fireworks Barge near Red Rock, 76 Marine Street, MA	89	0	Rough
6	Winthrop Fireworks Coughlin Park, MA	90	0	Rough
7	Swampscott Fireworks Nahant Bay, MA	90	0	Rough
8	Nantucket Fireworks Jetties Beach, MA	92	0	Rough
9	Seward 4th of July Festival Seward Boat Harbor / Resurrection Bay, AK	98	0	Rough
10	Beverly Fireworks Barge off West Beach, 121 West St., MA	83	2	Rough
11	Essex Connecticut River Independence Day Essex Town Center / Connecticut River Museum, CT	86	3	Rough
12	Waterbury Independence Day Fireworks Holy Land USA / Pine Hill, CT	91	3	Rough
13	Kennebunk Fireworks Gooch's Beach, ME	92	5	Rough
14	Camden Fourth of July Fireworks Camden Harbor / Curtis Island, ME	93	5	Rough
15	Tamworth Fourth of July Fireworks Tamworth, NH	94	5	Rough
16	Old Orchard Beach Fireworks Old Orchard Beach Pier, ME	95	5	Rough
17	Osterville Fireworks 2 Barges in Tims Cove, Cove Lane, MA	90	9	Rough
18	Sanford Fireworks Number 1 Pond, ME	90	9	Rough
19	Whittier Midnight Fireworks Whittier Harbor, AK	97	9	Rough
20	Haverhill Fireworks Riverside Park, MA	88	13	Rough
21	Quincy Fireworks Bay Pointe Waterfront Restaurant, MA	88	13	Rough
22	Tewksbury Fireworks Baseball field behind 286 Livingston Street, MA	90	15	Rough
23	Six Flags St. Louis July 4th Fest Six Flags St. Louis, MO	84	17	Rough
24	Eureka Independence Day Celebration Drewel Park, MO	84	17	Rough
25	Juneau Midnight Fireworks Gastineau Channel, AK	97	27	Rough

Scoring

How the Fireworks Index works

0–100. The Fireworks Index is the expected share of a perfect show: it multiplies whether the show fires at all (launch gate) by how much of an ideal display you would actually see (sky quality, smoke clearance, darkness). A score of 80 means you’d experience about 80% of a theoretically perfect fireworks display given the forecast conditions.

Four gates feed the score: Sky (cloud cover and ceiling — can you see the shells?), Smoke (air clearance for visibility), Dark (how dark the sky is at show time, after sunset), and Launch (go/delay based on wind, lightning risk, and fire danger). Scores are computed from the Tomorrow.io forecast for the exact show window at each venue’s location.

Sources. Show schedule: NFPA 1123 corpus (1,667 verified shows). Fire risk: Keetch–Byram Drought Index. Sunset timing: NOAA Solar Calculator. Forecast: Tomorrow.io Weather API.

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More leaderboards

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Tomorrow.io · Weather Intelligence
Fireworks Index · July 4, 2026

Computed from the live Tomorrow.io forecast for each show’s event window. Every score is reproducible from the public forecast API. Computed from the live Tomorrow.io forecast pulled for the event window.