Fireworks Index · July 4, 2026
The Most At-Risk Fireworks Shows
Where the weather is making the toughest case against a clean show — worth a backup plan.
Shows ranked
25 of 1,667
#1 Fireworks Index
0 — Rough
Forecast source
Tomorrow.io Weather API
1,667
shows in the full corpus
25
shows ranked on this board
0
#1 Fireworks Index
2
#10 score on this board
What this ranks
How these shows are chosen

Lowest Fireworks Index first. Conditions, not predictions of cancellation — the call always belongs to the show's crew.

Fireworks Index · The Most At-Risk Fireworks Shows
Rankings
#1
Manchester-by-the-Sea Fireworks
Barge off Singing Beach, MA · Fireworks Index 0 (Rough) · Show confidence: 84
Rank Show / Venue Show confidence Index Band
1
Manchester-by-the-Sea Fireworks
Barge off Singing Beach, MA
84 0 Rough
2
Gloucester Fireworks
Stage Fort Park, 1 Hough Ave., MA
86 0 Rough
3
Hampton Beach Fireworks
Hampton Beach State Park, NH
87 0 Rough
4
Amesbury Fireworks
Woodsom Farm, 223 Lions Mouth Road, MA
89 0 Rough
5
Lynn Fireworks
Barge near Red Rock, 76 Marine Street, MA
89 0 Rough
6
Winthrop Fireworks
Coughlin Park, MA
90 0 Rough
7
Swampscott Fireworks
Nahant Bay, MA
90 0 Rough
8
Nantucket Fireworks
Jetties Beach, MA
92 0 Rough
9
Seward 4th of July Festival
Seward Boat Harbor / Resurrection Bay, AK
98 0 Rough
10
Beverly Fireworks
Barge off West Beach, 121 West St., MA
83 2 Rough
11
Essex Connecticut River Independence Day
Essex Town Center / Connecticut River Museum, CT
86 3 Rough
12
Waterbury Independence Day Fireworks
Holy Land USA / Pine Hill, CT
91 3 Rough
13
Kennebunk Fireworks
Gooch's Beach, ME
92 5 Rough
14
Camden Fourth of July Fireworks
Camden Harbor / Curtis Island, ME
93 5 Rough
15
Tamworth Fourth of July Fireworks
Tamworth, NH
94 5 Rough
16
Old Orchard Beach Fireworks
Old Orchard Beach Pier, ME
95 5 Rough
17
Osterville Fireworks
2 Barges in Tims Cove, Cove Lane, MA
90 9 Rough
18
Sanford Fireworks
Number 1 Pond, ME
90 9 Rough
19
Whittier Midnight Fireworks
Whittier Harbor, AK
97 9 Rough
20
Haverhill Fireworks
Riverside Park, MA
88 13 Rough
21
Quincy Fireworks
Bay Pointe Waterfront Restaurant, MA
88 13 Rough
22
Tewksbury Fireworks
Baseball field behind 286 Livingston Street, MA
90 15 Rough
23
Six Flags St. Louis July 4th Fest
Six Flags St. Louis, MO
84 17 Rough
24
Eureka Independence Day Celebration
Drewel Park, MO
84 17 Rough
25
Juneau Midnight Fireworks
Gastineau Channel, AK
97 27 Rough
Scoring
How the Fireworks Index works
0–100. The Fireworks Index is the expected share of a perfect show: it multiplies whether the show fires at all (launch gate) by how much of an ideal display you would actually see (sky quality, smoke clearance, darkness). A score of 80 means you’d experience about 80% of a theoretically perfect fireworks display given the forecast conditions.

Four gates feed the score: Sky (cloud cover and ceiling — can you see the shells?), Smoke (air clearance for visibility), Dark (how dark the sky is at show time, after sunset), and Launch (go/delay based on wind, lightning risk, and fire danger). Scores are computed from the Tomorrow.io forecast for the exact show window at each venue’s location.

Sources. Show schedule: NFPA 1123 corpus (1,667 verified shows). Fire risk: Keetch–Byram Drought Index. Sunset timing: NOAA Solar Calculator. Forecast: Tomorrow.io Weather API.
See all 1,667 shows on the live map

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Tomorrow.io · Weather Intelligence
Fireworks Index · July 4, 2026
Computed from the live Tomorrow.io forecast for each show’s event window. Every score is reproducible from the public forecast API. Computed from the live Tomorrow.io forecast pulled for the event window.